Future UI Directions

We used to have server computers, desktop computers, and notebook computers. Life was simple. We still have all those but we now also have the iPhone, iPod Touch, and Palm Pre. We're also soon going to have a whole bunch of tablets and possibly one from Apple too.

From a design perspective, we're seeing two entirely different user interface paradigms and interaction styles currently--computer and mobile. On the computer side, we have three basic flavors all of which are pretty well the same--Windows, OSX, and Linux. On the mobile side, we have the iPhone/Touch and the Pre operating systems which are also quite similar to one another. When tablets are introduced, they'll likely have a UI much more similar to the mobile than the computer paradigms. Given the hype about the tablets before any have been released and Apple hasn't even confirmed they're working on one, they'll likely be highly successful. If so, it'll be interesting to see what happens to computer OS UIs. Add into the mix the fact that most applications will be in the cloud, have a browser as their app container, and the fact that Google is developing an operating system optimized for this environment and we have a dramatically changing environment.

All of this suggests that we're in for an interesting and exciting time over the next while given this evolution of user interfaces and interaction styles. I believe the future will involve a combination of what we see in the mobile space today together with what we see as cloud-based Rich Internet Applications in the browser. What we know as computer user interfaces and interaction styles today will be a thing of the past and won't be carried into the future, although this may take a while to be fully realized given the install-base of traditional computers and operating systems. I believe designers need to stay on top of these paradigm shifts in user interface and user interaction because the rate of change is increasing dramatically. We may even see a reemergence of voice, possibly large gesture (beyond touch with fingers), and hopefully a sixth-sense style display sometime in the near future too. We may get that Minority Report dream yet.

As always, I'd greatly appreciate hearing any views you may have on this via the comment facility below.

Comments

[David]

I certainly agree with the trends you've identified; however, I'm not as sure whether the emergence of 'Minority Report' UXs would be such a blessing. My arms were tired just watching the movie!

Also, I wonder how long it will take for 'modern' mobile devices such as the iPhone and Pre to become pervasive. My sense is that low-cost handsets will be used around the world for quite a while so we'd better add that to the list of current UX styles.

Finally, what type of 'sixth sense' interfaces do you anticipate? Brain–computer interfaces?

[Karel]

David, you make a good point about the likelihood of still having certain user interfaces and interaction styles around for some time to come. I pointed out that the current computer-based UIs would still be around for a while and you added to that to point out that non-smart phone UIs will still be around too for a while. Great observation. I do think though that the early adopters will be moving to the new UIs. I would say that the iPhone/Touch is already beyond the early adopter phase and is now well into the early majority phase. There will always be late majority and laggards in technology adoption and it is still important to consider them but not satisfying the early adopters and early majority can be devastating business-wise.

I mentioned voice, large gesture, and sixth sense advanced UI technologies and referred to the movie Minority Report as the dream or visualization of these types of capabilities. I agree that large gesture can't be the only interaction style nor can voice. By sixth sense in this case I'm referring to the MIT project by that name that was presented as a recent TED.com conference (http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html). It is the effective integration of these technologies that I think will be key.

[Sophie]

I find it interesting that you put the iPhone and the Pre ahead of the rest. The iPhone only has about an 8% market share - and that's in the countries where it's sold. So it's not, I regret, the interface of the majority. A lot of smartphones operate on Symbian, which enables a customised UI with some similarities though. To date, in my opinion, not one mobile phone manufacturer has managed to develop a UI comparable to that of Nokia in the mid-90s, whereby they had managed to secure repeat purchase as people enjoyed being able to immediately be repeat known interactions on their new handset.
Personally, seeing how much the phone/tablet manufacturers seem to struggle to develop fully intuitive, user-centric interfaces, the future is far. The Iphone (and Ipod touch) receives raving critics from highly technical people who are its core audience, but it does start as fairly intimidating to a non-techy person. As for voice, gesture or brain-to-machine commands, I'm as curious as you are to see where they will go. There are intersting voice software, but seem to struggle to survive if only in the accessibility market.

[Dan]

Karel, I had an immediate reaction to a few of the statements in your blog post.

"...sometime in the near future."

In the 80s people thought that the paperless office was just around the corner. In the 70s people thought that AI was just around the corner.

and...
"We may get the minority report yet."

The coolness of a UI when observed from a distance does not always correspond to the actual UX. I learned this lesson when I tried the bumptop beta. Bumptop from a distance looked cool and I couldn't wait to try it. Once I got my hands on it, not 60 seconds had elpased before I wanted to go back to MS windows explored.

Dan